Monday, February 28, 2011
Forex | Afternoon Overview | 28 February 2011
Forex | Afternoon Overview | 28 February 2011
Before the financial crisis unfolded in 2007, the franc was one of the most popular currencies for use in carry trades the practice of borrowing one currency with low interest rates and investing the funds in another denomination yielding a higher rate. The franc was favored because of Switzerland's low interest rate, and the Japanese yen was appealing for similar reasons.
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Previous session overview
The euro traded up to a fresh three-week high against the dollar Monday based on comparably attractive yields despite continuing tumult in the Middle East.
Euro-zone debt stresses remain unresolved, but the common currency has nonetheless plowed ahead of late on expectations that inflation will likely trigger rate hikes in the euro zone before the U.S. or Japan. The euro has been particularly buoyed by increasingly hawkish remarks by European Central Bank rate setters in the run-up to the bank's interest rate decision Thursday.
Turmoil in the Middle East continues to benefit currencies perceived as safe havens, particularly the Swiss franc and yen but not the greenback, said analysts.
The euro was recently at USD1.3825, from USD1.3754 late Friday in New York. The dollar was at JPY81.86 from JPY81.65.
The Canadian dollar rallied to its highest level in more than three years Monday morning after stronger-than-expected growth data had investors conjecturing the Bank of Canada could raise interest rates earlier than previously expected.
The U.S. dollar is trading at CAD0.9739 from CAD0.9783 just before the data. Its session low of CAD0.9735 marks its lowest level since February 2008. It's down from CAD0.9792 late Friday. Canada's gross domestic product rose by 3.3% at an annualized pace in the fourth quarter, faster than the 3.0% climb expected by the market and the 2.3% forecast by the Bank of Canada in January.
Market expectation
The Swiss franc may reemerge as a funding currency for carry trades, but not just yet, because the political turmoil in North Africa and the euro-zone debt crisis will keep it in demand among investors as a safe haven.
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Sunday, February 27, 2011
Saturday, February 26, 2011
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Friday, February 25, 2011
Morgan Stanley, Citigroup & Sumitomo Mitsui on the Euro/Dollar
Morgan Stanley: upward revision of euro forecast - 25 February, 2011
Analysts at Morgan Stanley increased their forecasts for the European currency versus US dollar and Japanese yen.
As the reason for the forecast revision the specialists named more hawkish comments that keep coming from the European central bank. The ECB officials have spoken so far about the necessity to tighten monetary policy in order to fight rising inflation. In addition, the bank underlines that the European authorities have shown more efforts to solve the euro area’s debt problems and managed to reduce the risk of the region’s contagion.
Morgan Stanley changed target for the pair EUR/USD from $1.25 to $1.32 by March 31 and raised euro forecast from $1.20 to $1.24 by the end of the year. The pair EUR/JPY will trade at 111 yen at the end of March, while the previous estimate was at 108 yen. The year-end target for euro against yen was switched from 112 to 115 yen.
Citigroup: EUR/USD will rise to 1.4283 - 25 February, 2011
Technical analysts at Citigroup claim that the single currency may rise above 1.4000 versus the greenback after it formed the reverse “head-and-shoulders” pattern that consists of 3 bottoms with the deepest in the middle.
The figure began on February 2.
According to Citigroup, the pair EUR/USD may climb to 1.4030 and 1.4283.
Sumitomo Mitsui: euro may climb to $1.4200 - 25 February, 2011
Currency strategists at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation believe that the single currency may keep gaining in the next few weeks.
The specialists expect that the oil prices will remain very strong due to the tensions in the Middle East driving euro’s rate up as inflation in the euro area will increase encouraging the expectations that the European Central Bank will lift up interest rates.
Of course the inflationary pressure in the United States will strengthen as well. The analysts, however, think that the Fed will fall behind the ECB in the monetary tightening as higher oil prices could have a very negative impact on the American economy and the US monetary authorities will remain keen on the stimulus policy to support the country’s economic rebound. In addition, there are the political concerns affecting the greenback: investors are worrying that the popular protests against pro-US governments in countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia signal that US global power is waning.
writed by FBS Holdings © 2011
posted by Forex Quebec
February 25, 2011
EUR/USD | Euro/Dollar | Morgan Stanley | 25 February 2011
EUR/USD | Euro/Dollar | Morgan Stanley | 25 February 2011
Analysts at Morgan Stanley increased their forecasts for the European currency versus US dollar and Japanese yen. Read mo0re
Analysts at Morgan Stanley increased their forecasts for the European currency versus US dollar and Japanese yen. Read mo0re
EUR/USD | Euro/Dollar | Sumitomo Mitsui | 25 February 2011
EUR/USD | Euro/Dollar | Sumitomo Mitsui | 25 February 2011
Currency strategists at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation believe that the single currency may keep gaining in the next few weeks. Read more
Currency strategists at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation believe that the single currency may keep gaining in the next few weeks. Read more
EUR/USD | Technical Analysis | 25 February 2011
EUR/USD | Technical Analysis | 25 February 2011
On Thursday the Euro/Dollar continued increasing with around 120 pips, after deep morning correction. The European currency appreciated from 1.3703 to 1.3824 yesterday, matching the positive Interbank sentiment projection at nearly +2%, closing the day at 1.3798. This morning the pair climbed further up, reaching 1.3838. On the 1 hour chart new upward channel has formed, while on the 3 hour chart the upward channel is trying to resume. Read more
EUR/USD Open 1.3819 High 1.3838 Low 1.3703 Close 1.3798
Thursday, February 24, 2011
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Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Gold Price | Technical Analysis | 22 February 2011
Gold Price | Technical Analysis | 22 February 2011
Gold is approaching the upper limit of its bearish channel to 1423 suggesting a decline in the short term. However a break of these levels would free up significant potential and begin an upward trend. Read more
Gold is approaching the upper limit of its bearish channel to 1423 suggesting a decline in the short term. However a break of these levels would free up significant potential and begin an upward trend. Read more
Forex | Morning Review | Libyan Crisis | 22 February 2011
Forex | Morning Review | Libyan Crisis | 22 February 2011
February 22, 2011 - Markets.com
Coming up Today (All Times GMT)
* GBP - Public Sector Net Borrowing (09:30)
* CAD - Core Retail Sales m/m (13:30)
* USD - CB Consumer Confidence (15:00)
* AUD - RBA Gov Stevens Speaks (22:00)
Risk aversion has been evident across the board as the ongoing Libyan crisis has induced investors to look for safe havens. The greenback has been stronger against all the majors, Asian equities have been plummeting, and crude oil has been moving nearer to the $100 /brl level. In other news, the New Zealand dollar fell sharply by more than 1.5% against the US dollar, as a strong earth quake hit the country's second largest city of Christchurch.
EURUSD
After showing weakness in holding onto gains above 1.37, the euro took a beating against the dollar, down about 0.7% on the session at around 1.3580. It seems that uncertainty over the escalating Libyan crisis has prompted investors to take profits off the table.
Support/Resistance: 1.3550/1.3625
GBPUSD
The pound has also been losing ground against the greenback, along with other risk assets like equities. According to some analysts, should the BOE be forced to raise rates on the back of a commodity led inflation, and especially at a time where growth and employment prospects look fragile, then this could turn out to be quite sterling negative.
Support/Resistance: 1.6115/1.6185
Monday, February 21, 2011
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Friday, February 18, 2011
Gold Price | XAU/USD | Technical Analysis | 18 February 2011
Gold Price | XAU/USD | Technical Analysis | 18 February 2011
Gold is currently testing the upper limit of its medium-term bullish channel to 1387 suggesting a decline in the short term. However a break of these levels would initiate a more violent upward trend. Read more
Gold is currently testing the upper limit of its medium-term bullish channel to 1387 suggesting a decline in the short term. However a break of these levels would initiate a more violent upward trend. Read more
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
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Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Forex | Afternoon Overview | US Retail Sales | 15 February 2011
Forex | Afternoon Overview | US Retail Sales | 15 February 2011
The Canadian dollar pared its modest gains against the U.S. dollar Tuesday morning, after disappointing U.S. retail sales data dimmed hopes for a smooth-sailing U.S. recovery. The U.S. consumer is considered essential to achieving a full economic recovery in the U.S., Canada's major trading partner. The U.S. dollar was at CAD0.9866 Tuesday morning, from CAD0.9888 late Monday. It slipped to a session low of CAD0.9847 overnight, then continued to wander in a slim, half-cent range. Read more
Sterling took centre stage in European trading hours Tuesday falling initially on data showing that U.K. consumer prices rose at double the Bank of England's target rate in January, before recovering quickly as market participants digested the latest comments from Bank of England Governor Mervyn King.
The pound had traded at USD1.6106 against the dollar prior to the CPI data release, before slumping to USD1.6019.
The euro climbed steadily higher in early European trading but its strength was capped at around USD1.35 against the dollar on mixed data, with slightly disappointing fourth-quarter gross domestic numbers offsetting stronger German confidence. Rumors of a weak German ZEW reading proved unfounded with current conditions coming in at 85.2 compared with the 82.8 recorded in January. Economic expectations also rose slightly to 15.7 points from 15.4 points in January, but this was below the consensus forecast of 20.0 points. But euro-zone growth was slightly weaker than expected in the final quarter of 2010 with GDP only growing by 0.3% compared to the 0.4% quarterly growth expected by economists.
The dollar weakened slightly Tuesday against the euro and yen after U.S. retail sales data came in weaker than expected.
Tuesday morning, the euro was at USD1.3515 from USD1.3489 late Monday. The dollar was at JPY83.73 from JPY83.34.
Forex Market Await GDP Germany Europe News | 15 February 2011
Forex Market Await GDP Germany Europe News | 15 February 2011
Poor GDP figures may add to the increasing negative sentiment relating to Euro. Read more
We are looking at a busy news day today, Tuesday, Feb. 15.
Early in the morning the Q4 GDP figures for Germany will be released and then figures for the entire EUROZONE. Analyst estimates expect Germany to report quarterly growth of about 0.5-0.6%. Estimates for the EUROZONE, expect growth of 0.3-0.4% q/q.
Monday, February 14, 2011
GBP/CHF | Candlestick Technical Analysis | 14 February 2011
GBP/CHF | Candlestick Technical Analysis | 14 February 2011
The GBP/CHF is advancing further after it successfully broke the resistance level 1.5600. Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/CHF has formed candlestick combination Rising Three Methods, which indicates upside movement, confirmed further. Read more
The GBP/CHF is advancing further after it successfully broke the resistance level 1.5600. Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/CHF has formed candlestick combination Rising Three Methods, which indicates upside movement, confirmed further. Read more
EUR/GBP | Candlestick Technical Analysis | 14 February 2011
EUR/GBP | Candlestick Technical Analysis | 14 February 2011
The EUR/GBP currency pair is rolling back after it has successfully broken the resistance level 0.8498. Earlier on a 4-hour graph the EUR/GBP has formed candlestick combination Piercing Line, which indicates upside movement. Read more
The EUR/GBP currency pair is rolling back after it has successfully broken the resistance level 0.8498. Earlier on a 4-hour graph the EUR/GBP has formed candlestick combination Piercing Line, which indicates upside movement. Read more
EUR/USD | Candlestick Technical Analysis | 14 February 2011
EUR/USD | Candlestick Technical Analysis | 14 February 2011
The EUR/USD currency pair is consolidating near the Fibonacci correction level 38.2. Earlier on a 4-hour graph the EUR/USD has formed candlestick combination Falling Three Methods, indicating downside movement. Read more
The EUR/USD currency pair is consolidating near the Fibonacci correction level 38.2. Earlier on a 4-hour graph the EUR/USD has formed candlestick combination Falling Three Methods, indicating downside movement. Read more
US Dollar Rebounded Facing Key Resistance | DXYO | US Dollar Index
US Dollar Rebounded Facing Key Resistance | DXYO | US Dollar Index
One important development to consider was the extended weakness in the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen. This could be a signal that investors are returning to carry trades on future interest rates expectations. Read more
Dollar rebounded further last week with renewed support over concern on the EUROZONE debt crisis. The USD also saw some strength in US treasury yields.
Egypt's revolution was a factor in driving investors to the safe haven US Dollar too but that should be over as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak stepped down last Friday and handed power to the military. The resignation ended Mubarak's 30-year rule and protests in Egypt over the past 3 weeks.
Gold Price | Technical Analysis | 14 February 2011
Gold Price | Technical Analysis | 14 February 2011
Gold is currently testing the lower limit of its medium-term bullish channel at 1355 suggesting a rebound in the short term. Read more
Gold is currently testing the lower limit of its medium-term bullish channel at 1355 suggesting a rebound in the short term. Read more
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Forex | Morning Review | China Inflation | 14 February 2011
Forex | Morning Review | China Inflation | 14 February 2011
February 14, 2011 - Markets.com
Coming up Today (All Times GMT)
* AUD - Minutes of the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting (00:30)
* CNY - Consumer Price Index (02:00)
EURUSD
Last week, the euro traded under pressure, as unfolding events in Egypt triggered flows out of risky currencies for the benefit of the US dollar and gold. Also, the announcement that Bundesbank President Axel Weber and ex-German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck would not seek the seat of departing ECB Chairman Jean-Claude Trichet came as a big surprise. Both candidates share conservative views on monetary policy and have been criticizing ECB's program to buy risky government bonds. Therefore, their exit from the ECB race has fueled some bearish sentiment on the euro and pushed the EURUSD pair around its $1.3500 support. This week, investors will be following the release of Eurozone's Q4 GDP figures to see if they can help the euro revert its downside trend.
EURUSD Support / Resistance: 1.3500 / 1.3625
GBPUSD
Last Thursday, the BoE Monetary Policy Committee kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%. Despite inflationary pressures, a wait-and-see attitude prevailed among policy members, as they remain cautious not to cut the fragile recovery. This week, inflation data will be on the spotlight with the release Tuesday of the latest CPI figures. It is expected that the continuous rise in food and energy prices will push inflation further up. Governor King has already warned that these above-target figures would not persist. However, if Tuesday's report shows that price increases are broad-based, it could amplify inflation expectations and put more pressure on the BoE to act.
GBPUSD Support / Resistance: 1.5990 / 1.6090
USDJPY
According to preliminary figures, Japan’s economy contracted by an annualized 1.1% in the fourth quarter. The data was less bad than forecasts, as most of the contraction was due to the unwinding of government stimulus measures. In reaction, the yen stayed unchanged at ¥83.20 per dollar, ahead of the release tonight of January’s inflation figures in China. If inflation numbers are higher than expected, it could add further weakness to the USDJPY pair.
USDJPY Support / Resistance: 83.00 / 83.60
Friday, February 11, 2011
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Gold Price | Technical Analysis | 11 February 2011
Gold Price | Technical Analysis | 11 February 2011
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 1368 with a 1st objective of 1377, then 1380. A break in 1366 would invalidate this scenario.
more Gold Technical Analysis
The gold came to test its short term horizontal resistance at 1368. A break of these levels would reach the upper limit of the bullish channel at 1377.
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