Monday, January 31, 2011

GBP/USD | Ichimoku Analysis | Weekly Forecast | 31 January 2011

GBP/USD | Ichimoku Analysis | Weekly Forecast | 31 January 2011

As it was expected, conflicting readings of the different lines of the Indicator on the weekly chart led to the sharp reversal of short-term bullish sentiment at the GBP/USD market. Read more

USD/JPY | Ichimoku Analysis | Weekly Forecast | 31 January 2011

USD/JPY | Ichimoku Analysis | Weekly Forecast | 31 January 2011

On the USD/JPY market the bears, as it was expected, have won last week’s battle and the candle at the daily chart closed below the Turning line (3).

Both Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen (3, 4) went down that makes possible further decline of the greenback versus yen. Read more

USD/CHF | Weekly & Daily Ichimoku Analysis | 31 January 2011

USD/CHF | Weekly & Daily Ichimoku Analysis | 31 January 2011

On the USD/CHF market the bears were very active as well. The bounce from the horizontal Turning line (3) that took place 3 weeks ago provokes negative sentiment, so the prices found themselves at the historic minimums. Read more

Crude Oil | Weekly Analysis | 31 January to 4 february 2011

Crude Oil | Weekly Analysis | 31 January to 4 february 2011

Crude oil fell to a low as 85.11 last week but staged a strong rebound from there.

The strong move up through the 87.79 minor support could suggest that fall from 92.37 might be over. Initial bias is back to a bullish trend this week for a possible trend up towards the 92.58 resistance level. A move up from there could test the key psychological level found at 100 next.

Looking down, we see support at 85.11. A move below that could test the 80.06 support instead.

January 31, 2010 - by David Frank, Financial Analyst, Ava Fx

Currency Roundup | FX Market Fundamental Analysis | 31 January 2011

Currency Roundup | FX Market Fundamental Analysis | 31 January 2011

USD : The dollar fell despite positive data showing an increase in people's spending activity after risk trends changed and favoured risk appetite currencies such as the euro. On the data front Personal Spending, in December, increased to 0.7% compared to a 0.3% rise last month and the expected 0.5% rise. Personal Consumption Expenditure Core decreased slightly from 0.1% to 0.0%, whilst Personal Income stayed the same at 0.4%, which was also in line with expectations. Look out for ISM manufacturing tomorrow at 15:00 GMT. At midday GMT today the dollar fell to $1.3670 to the euro and $1.5888 to the pound.

EUR : The euro advanced on data which fuelled increased inflation expectations, heightening speculation of an ECB move to increase base lending rates later in the year. The Euro-zone CPI estimate showed an increase of 2.4% compared with 2.2% in the last year and a 2.3% estimate. Italian PPI increased from 0.4% to 0.6% whilst YoY, the figure showed and increase above expectations to 4.6%. Further data showed German Retail Sales fell more than expected in December, falling by -0.3% which was better than the -1.9% fall last month but not as high as the 2.0% expected. Whilst YoY the fall was more, dropping by -1.3% compared with an increase of 2.0% last month and a forecasted change of 1.1%. At midday GMT the euro rose to $1.3670 to the dollar and £0.8603 to the pound.

GBP : The pound rose on commentary from BOE official Martin Weale who said - according to an article in the Guardian newspaper - that there’s a “powerful case for a modest rise in the bank rate.” This increased confidence that the BOE will eventually raise interest rates and helped boost sterling. There was no major economic data out for the UK today although Nationwide House Prices is out tomorrow at 07:00 and may move the pound, then later at 09:30 there is Consumer Credit. At midday GMT the pound rose to $1.5888 to the dollar and ¥130.57 to the yen.

JPY : The yen fell despite positive data showing a construction revival in the making as risk trends took precedence and risk appetite reigned, benefiting the euro and the pound the most. Last night’s data showed Industrial Production increased by 3.1% MoM in December compared to a 1.0% rise in the previous month, although YoY, the figure showed a fall. Meanwhile Construction Orders, Housing Starts and Vehicle Production all out today showed signs of Improvement with Construction Orders increasing by 13.1% in December compared to a -5.3% result in November and estimates of a 1.1% increase – a considerable swing. At midday GMT the yen fell to ¥82.19 to the dollar and ¥112.35 to the euro.


by Joaquin Monfort, Analytical expert , Forex4You © 2011

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Forex | Afternoon Overview | 31 January 2011

Forex | Afternoon Overview | 31 January 2011

Previous session overview

The dollar was weaker in early US dealings, modestly supported by Egypt-related risk aversion but surrendering Friday's gains against the euro. Euro-zone inflation data is helping the single currency by heightening fears of an ECB rate hike, analysts said. However, concerns about Europe's debt crisis are constraining the euro's gains. A data-heavy week, which includes US payrolls data, increases the possibility of more sharp moves. EURUSD trades higher around USD1.3703 from USD1.3612 late Friday, with USDJPY flat around JPY82.16. Meanwhile, EURJPY trades around JPY112.57 from JPY111.77.

The Pound was trading at USD1.5873 against the dollar, compared with USD1.5864 late Friday in New York.

The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 78.057 from 78.156 Friday.

CAD gained vs USD, hitting session highs after domestic and US data. Canadian GDP for Nov narrowly beat expectations, with a 0.4% rise. In the US, consumer spending topped expectations, and the ISM-New York business index hit and 8-month high. USDCAD was at CAD0.9966, down from CAD1.0005 late Friday.

European stock markets have remained weak Monday, with ongoing political tension in the Middle East and North Africa the dominant theme. However, the markets have recovered to a degree from the sharp early losses, with some investors tempted in at the lower levels.

Market expectation

The euro could keep sliding in the next week if political troubles in Egypt spark a broader scramble by investors out of risky investments and into safer bets including the dollar and Swiss franc. Investors scrambled out of assets perceived to be riskier such as stocks and the single European currency on a wave of risk aversion sparked by growing unrest in Egypt, market analysts said.

Read more

Euro Rebounds | CPI Data | 31 January 2011

Euro Rebounds | CPI Data | 31 January 2011

The Euro has rebounded strongly today after CPI estimate beat expectations and accelerated to 2.4% in January (year on end). This was the highest level in more than two years.

Based on recent inflation jaw boning from European Central Bank, the stronger than expected inflation reading triggered more speculation that ECB would normalize rates sooner.

The CPI is now above ECB's target of "below 2%, close to 2%" for the second month in a row. Further, there is no sign that is cooling down.

Investors and the markets are expecting a possible rate hike in Q4; however, the ECB might increase the rate sooner if inflation outlook worsens.

Through all this, the EURUSD pair is still below the 1.3757 recent high on concern of continuation of Egypt protest.

January 31, 2010 - by David Frank, Financial Analyst, Ava Fx

USD/CAD | Technical Analysis | 31 January 2011

USD/CAD | Technical Analysis | 31 January 2011


Support levels: 0.9910, 0.9820, 0.9711
Resistance levels: 1.0026, 1.0050, 1.0212

On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair has made a sharp rebound up and at the moment is testing the resistance level 1.0026. However, the viewpoint to the pair is still neutral.

As mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0026 resistance level further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.

However, if a reversal takes place break of the 0.9820 support level will target the pair to 0.9711.

In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.

Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.


by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert , InstaForex © 2007-2011

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AUD/USD | Technical Analysis | 31 January 2011

AUD/USD | Technical Analysis | 31 January 2011

This pair continues to consolidate in an ever tighter range. We are probably in the last wave of a triangle and it may be the last wave is a little triangle in itself, in which case we are either in A or C of that smaller pattern. In either case the consolidation is likely to near an end soon and afterwards there will probably be a breakout.

As I have said in previous pieces the breakout will probably be bearish given the: “signs of exhaustion in the longer term trend.” Although as always with triangles caution should be exercised; however, taking the width of the range as a guide one could possibly predict a fall to 0.9580 or support and resistance at 0.9655.

by Joaquin Monfort, Analytical expert , Forex4You © 2011




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EUR/USD | Technical Analysis | 31 January 2011

EUR/USD | Technical Analysis | 31 January 2011

This pair fell quite heavily after touching the major trend line of the June rally last week. In Elliot wave terms the fall is probably a 4th wave of the larger wave up from the lows reached on the 17th Jan. This suggests that when it has completed, wave 5 will rally back up again to either the 1.3760 highs or higher to around 1.3800.

Before then, however, there is good possibility that this move down will continue a little, to either match or even fall below the recent 1.3569 lows, targeting the 1.3550s eventually.

by Joaquin Monfort, Analytical expert , Forex4You © 2011

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Gold Price | Technical Analysis | 31 January 2011

Gold Price | Technical Analysis | 31 January 2011

Gold is currently testing the upper limit of its medium-term bearish channel at 1347. A break of these levels it would free up significant potential and begin an upward trend.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 1347 with a 1st objective of 1358, then 1364. A break in 1345 would invalidate this scenario.


by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert - InstaForex © 2007-2011

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Sunday, January 30, 2011

Forex Morning Review | Traders Watching Egypt | 31 January 2011

Forex Morning Review | Traders Watching Egypt | 31 January 2011

Coming up Today (All Times GMT)

- CAD GDP (13:30)
- NZD Labor Cost Index (21:45)

Opening the new week, all eyes continue to be on Egypt. On Friday, the unrest caused Oil Prices to soar as traders worried that the key Suez Canal shipping corridor could get obstructed and cause supply concerns. Also, safe havens caught a bid as traders exited riskier currencies going into the weekend. Specifically, Gold was $30 higher to 1340/oz as short sellers got squeezed on the move, while the dollar and yen both moved higher against major currencies.

Looking ahead, there are two main scenarios that Forex traders will be watching. A quick resolution to the events in Egypt could propel traders to dump safe havens and jump back into the risk trade. On the other hand, if the troubles appear like they will last, it could trigger more Forex participants to trim their positions and head to the sidelines. Traders should keep their eyes on last week’s lows as a move below those levels could cause additional weakness.

EURUSD : The EURUSD was a big loser on Friday; however it did find support around the 1.3600 figure. 1.3600 was the level that it had rallied from last week. Therefore, if the pair closes above this level it could signal that demand continues to be strong in the Euro. The Euro continues to be attracting buyers, as successful EU sovereign debt sales have eased concerns about the Euro zone’s stability.

GBPUSD : Following last week’s poor UK GDP figures, the GBPUSD has been trendless, with several spikes to both the down and upside. This trading action could continued over the short term as Forex traders await more economic data to determine the next trend in the GBPUSD. Until then, the GBPUSD has strong resistance just above 1.6000 with support at 15750 and 1.5820.

Support/Resistance 1.5760,1.5820/1.6000,1.6055

January 31, 2011 - Markets.com

Forex Daily Outlook | Egypt Uprising Brings Fear to Markets | 31 January 2011

Forex Daily Outlook | Egypt Uprising Brings Fear to Markets | 31 January 2011

EGYPT UPRISING BRINGS FEAR BACK TO MARKETS



U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) risk aversion reentered the markets on Friday as news from Egypt showed the situation deteriorating on Friday sending stock markets tumbling in the US session. News over the weekend showed the crisis continuing and could weigh on markets Monday. Q4 GDP at 3.2% vs. 3.5% forecast. In US stocks, DJIA -166 points closing at 11823, S&P -23 points closing at 1276 and NASDAQ -68 points closing at 2686. Looking ahead, Q4 GDP forecast at 3.5% vs. 2.6% previously Q/Q.

The Euro (EUR) fell sharply on the Egyptian chaos which fueled heavy USD and CHF buying. Also weighing on the Euro Friday, more reports that German Officials are still reluctant to increase the EFSF. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3584 and a high of 1.3746 before closing at 1.3605. Looking ahead, German January Inflation Flash forecast at 2.3% vs. 2.2% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was strong across the board as the market reversed the losses on Thursday due to the S&P downgrade to pushing the major back to Y82. Crosses led the market lower with the risk sensitive AUD/JPY heavily affected. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 81.99 and a high of 82.93 before closing the day around 82.10 in the New York session. UPDATE January PMI Manufacturing jumps to 51.4 vs. 48.3 previously.

The Sterling (GBP) a source of support however with the market grinding lower. GBP/JPY fell to Y130 support and is pressuring the Key level. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5826 and a high of 1.5966 before closing the day at 1.5865 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) a 4% gain in Oil and Surging Gold market did not help the risk sensitive AUD which came under strong selling pressure due. Most AUD crosses are reacting to the risk off trading environment, continuing to unwind gains in the last month. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9885 and a high of 0.9985 before closing the US session at 0.9920.

Oil & Gold (XAU) safe haven demand from all corners of the market lifted gold $30 for it biggest gain in 6 months. Overall trading with a low of USD$1308 and high of USD $1347 before ending the New York session at USD$1336 an ounce. Middle East concerns where best expressed with Oil jumping over 4% back to $90 a barrel. WTI Oil Closed +$3.70 at $89.34 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2

EUR/USD 1.3541 1.3573 1.3580 1.3758 1.3825

USD/JPY 81.61 81.89 82.20 83.22 84.11

GBP/USD 1.5618 1.5702 1.5830 1.6017 1.6059

AUD/USD 0.9753 0.9864 0.9870 1.0009 1.0077

XAU/USD 1229.00 1300 1343 1353 1371

OIL/USD 89.50 90.00 90.50 91.50 92.50


Euro – 1.3580

Initial support at 1.3573 (Jan 25 low) followed by 1.3541 (Jan 24 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3758 (Jan 27 high) followed by 1.3825 (Nov 10 high)

Yen – 82.20

Initial support is located at 81.89 (Jan 5 low) followed by 81.61 (Jan 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 83.22 (Jan 27 high) followed by 84.11 (Dec 20 high).

Pound – 1.5830

Initial support at 1.5702 (50 % retrace of 1.5345-1.6059) followed by 1.5618 (61.8% retrace of 1.5345-1.6059). Initial resistance is now at 1.6017 (Jan 25 high) followed by 1.6059 (Jan 18 High).

Australian Dollar – 0.9870

Initial support at 0.9864 (Jan 24 low) followed by the 0.9753 (Dec 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0009 (Jan 20 High) followed by 1.0077 (Jan 19 high).

Gold – 1343

Initial support at 1300 (Round Number) followed by 1290 (Intraday). Initial resistance is now at 1353 (Jan 24 high) followed by 1371 (Jan 20 high).

Oil – 90.50

Initial support at 90.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 89.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 91.50 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 92.50 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall - easy-forex

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EUR/USD | Euro/Dollar | Fibonacci Retracement Levels | January 2011

Euro/Dollar | Fibonacci Retracement Levels | January 2011

The Euro/Dollar has reached its highest price in 2011 last week at 1.3754 and finally falling to close the week at 1.3610 on Friday. There is a strong potential reversal point around 1.3750 on this pair for a bearish retracement.

The price level located around 1.3750 on the EUR/USD was often solicited as a support in 2010, as you can see on the daily chart. This same level serves us now as a resistance and become an interesting turning point to enter in a bearish retracement.

The bearish retracement is invalidated by a failure of breaking 1.3551 (Fibonacci Level 23.6) or a new high. A break of 1.38 would lead us in a completely different scenario.

A break of 1.3551 would confirm the bearish retracement scenario for the EUR/USD.

Retracement Levels

Fib Level 0 (January High) : 1.3754

Fib Level 23.6 : 1.3551

Fib Level 38.2 : 1.3425

Fib Level 61.8 : 1.3210

Fib Level 100 (January Low) : 1.2873





Friday, January 28, 2011

Gold Price | XAU/USD | Gold Price Graph | 28 January 2011

Gold Price | XAU/USD | Gold Price Graph | 28 January 2011

Last Price : $1336.54

Open : $1,312.60

Close : $1336.54

Change : +1.28%

Daily Range : $1,310.20 - $1,345.20

What People Dont Realize About the Fed's Superpowers

What People Dont Realize About the Fed's Superpowers

Since its creation in 1913, the primary intended role of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank has been that of protector. In theory, the central bank was bestowed with the power to shape monetary policy in a way that would keep both booms and busts in check. The two main tools at its disposal -- interest rates and money creation -- would provide a "ceiling of normalcy" above expansions AND a "net of safety" below contractions. Read more

USD/CAD | American Dollar/Canadian Dollar | Technical Analysis | 28 January 2011

USD/CAD | American Dollar/Canadian Dollar | Technical Analysis | 28 January 2011

EUR/JPY | Euro/Yen | Technical Analysis | 28 January 2011

EUR/JPY | Euro/Yen | Technical Analysis | 28 January 2011

This pair pulled back after reaching 114.05 as predicted, and then fell to 113.01. With a recovery rally launched today currently at 113.40 - it may well go higher as the second leg of the zigzag we are in does not look complete, and has only reached minimum length expectations.

There is every possibility of a retouch of 114.05, or even a break higher to 114.30. A push lower, in perhaps a long overdue Elliot wave 4 could also be a possibility targeting the 200 day MA at 112.01 as the next strong support level.


by Joaquin Monfort, Analytical expert , Forex4You © 2011

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Currency Roundup | FX Market Fundmamental Analysis | 28 January 2011

Currency Roundup | FX Market Fundmamental Analysis | 28 January 2011

USD : The dollar traded mixed strengthening against some currencies and weakening against others. GDP figures released today showed economic activity increased but not as much as had been expected. GDP rose to 3.2% in the 4th quarter of 2010, higher than the previous quarter’s 2.6% but not as high as the estimated 3.5%. Personal consumption also increased, above estimates, showing a 4.4% rise in January compared to 2.4% in the previous month and 4.0% estimated, although Core Personal Consumption fell to 0.4% in line with expectations. The ambivalent GDP data which was neither particularly poor nor good will probably lead to some loss of directional movement for certain dollar pairs as investors weigh up the pros and cons. At midday GMT the dollar traded at $1.3721 to the euro and was down against the pound at $1.5923.

EUR : The euro weakened slightly as assuring rhetoric from ECB big-hitters fell on deaf ears and concerns about the lack of additional material to fight the sovereign debt crisis weighed. There was a light economic docket with M3 Money Supply falling a little YoY to 1.7% from 1.9%, with 1.9% expected. Italian wages fell a little too (by one basis point) and Italian Consumer Confidence also declined from 109.1 to 105.9 – below expectations of a 108.9 reading. All in all a weak day for the euro, although the rate hike speculation of late continues and manages to keep the currency relatively buoyant and strong, as will probably be the case looking ahead. At midday GMT the euro traded at $1.3721 to the dollar and was down to £0.8614 against the pound.

GBP : The pound lost ground today after Consumer Confidence data showed the largest fall since 1994 and concerns at the effects on growth of the government’s austerity measures weighed. Gfk Consumer Confidence fell from -21 to -29 in January. The dramatic fall was partly attributed to the increase in the V.A.T sales tax which was introduced this year from 17.5% to 20.0%. Recent poor data has led to speculation that the BOE may hold back on a rate hike because of fears of the effects of higher interest rates during an economic slowdown. At midday GMT the pound traded at $1.5923 to the dollar and ¥130.87 to the yen.

JPY : The yen strengthened today after its dramatic fall following yesterday’s downgrade by the S&P. Positive economic data may have been partly responsible as the yen staged an impressive recovery. The Japanese economy had a heavy docket last night with a large amount of news releases most of which were positive. The Jobless rate slowed in December to 4.9% whilst in the previous month it had been 5.1% and expectations were for it to stay at that level. Household Spending decreased much more than expected in December, falling by -3.3% compared to only a -0.4% the month before and expectations of a -0.6% change. CPI fell to 0.0% but not as much as had been forecasted. Retail Trade fell substantially from 1.5% rise last month to -2.0% and 0.6% expected. At midday GMT the yen rose to ¥82.19 versus the dollar and rose to ¥112.76 against the euro.


by Joaquin Monfort, Analytical expert , Forex4You © 2011

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EUR/USD | Technical Analysis | 28 January 2011

EUR/USD | Technical Analysis | 28 January 2011

The forecast is much like yesterday’s in that the exchange rate is still pushing up against resistance from the underside of the long term trend-line from the June ’10 lows. It fell back this morning and found support at the redrawn trend-line from the 10th of January lows at 1.3680, where it is now.

If it breaks lower it would be expected to reach support and resistance at the 1.3630-40 level initially whilst a rally back up to the 1.3725 highs is also quite possible.


by Joaquin Monfort, Analytical expert , Forex4You © 2011

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AUD/USD | Technical Analysis | 28 January 2011

AUD/USD | Technical Analysis | 28 January 2011

This pair is still in the sideways consolidation which began on the 12th January. This may have taken the form of a triangle - the E and final leg of which we may be in now. The exchange rate began to reverse and rise this morning and has now reached the 0.9970s.

There is every chance it will follow through and reach the strong resistance levels at parity or just above. From there it is possible it will reverse and fall back to 0.9925 initially, before breaking out of the triangle to the downside, although confirmation should be sought before acting.


by Joaquin Monfort, Analytical expert , Forex4You © 2011

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Gold still a Safe Haven | January 2011

Gold still a Safe Haven | January 2011

Is Gold Still a Safe Haven? - January 28, 2011



Over the past 2 weeks, gold has seen its biggest two day drop since February of 2010. What bull market goes up in a straight line?

But, what triggered this drop?

It's simple. If investors believe their future with gold is good, then they will buy gold. If investors believe their future with gold is full of warnings than they will not run to the precious metal.

What are examples of "warnings? We see plenty of those and we have plenty of worries to keep even the most experienced investor awake at night. Some examples are: quantitative easing, sovereign debt, currency wars, EURO ZONE problems, and a housing market where 1:7 mortgages are in foreclosure; also inflation, deflation, hyperinflation, etc.

Has the ECB done enough to fix its ongoing debt crisis? Is the US Economy truly on the mend? We are seeing a very weak stance coming out of the ECB to strengthen the recovery fund and the US housing market is still in the critical zone. Further, we have a chance of soaring inflation.

Inflation soaring? Really? Consider this for a moment.

Investors of US debt are growing closer to a breaking point that could force a major selloff of Treasuries causing yields to rise sharply. This would make it expensive for the US Government to borrow to spur a sluggish economy.

If that happens, inflation could soar. Investors would then flock back into gold, as a safe haven. We have already received signals from China that it intends to reduce their holdings of US Treasuries. If you think that will cause a mild inflation risk, you are in for a rude awakening.

When inflation is growing in the double digits (hyperinflation), it has a single cause. It occurs when a government cannot borrow money because its debt has risen so much that investors believe they will never be paid back close to what they spent.

Is the run towards gold over? I think not. With volatile currency markets, US debt worries, etc, etc, investors still need a safe haven.

David Frank, Financial Analyst, Ava FX

Forex News | Dollar Weakens Following Disappointing Economic Data | 28 January 2011

Forex News | Dollar Weakens Following Disappointing Economic Data | 28 January 2011

Dollar Weakens Following Disappointing Economic Data - 28 Jan. 2011


The U.S. Dollar fell against most of its major currency rivals on Thursday's trading session. The dollar fell about 60 pips vs. the euro, and the EUR/USD pair reached a daily high of 1.3757. The greenback also dropped about 60 pips vs. the British.

The dollar fell yesterday after a report showed that the number of Americans that filed for the first time for unemployment benefits rose by 51,000 to 454,000 in the week ended in January 22. The end results failed to reach expectations for 407,000 claims. In addition, the total value of new purchase order placed with manufacturers for durable goods unexpectedly fell in December by 2.5%, failing to reach projection for a 1.6% rise.

The dollar's fall has been moderated due to some positive data. The number of Americans singing contracts to buy previously owned homes rose in December by 2.0%, following a revised 3.1% gain the prior month. Positive data from the American housing sector are vital for the economy, as this remain the most fragile sector in the industry. In addition, orders for U.S. Capital equipment increased in December for the second month in a row. Bookings for equipment like computers and communications gear climbed by 1.4 after a 3.1% gain in November.

As for today, the most significant news event from the U.S. economy looks to be the Advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The GDP measures the change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy, and its release usually has a large impact on the market. Traders are also advised to follow the Consumer Sentiment report which will be released from the University of Michigan.

January 28, 2011 - ForexYards.com

Gold Price | Technical Analysis | 28 January 2011

Gold Price | Technical Analysis | 28 January 2011

Gold is currently testing the lower limit of its medium term bearish channel at 1308 suggesting a rebound in the short term. However a break of these levels would initiate a more violent downward trend.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity on the levels of 1308 with a 1st objective of 1322, then 1327. A break in 1306 would invalidate this scenario.


by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert - InstaForex © 2007-2011

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Forex Morning Review | Focus on US GDP data | 28 January 2011

Forex Morning Review | Focus on US GDP data | 28 January 2011

Coming up Today (All Times GMT)

* CHF - KOF Economic Barometer (10:30)
* USD - Advance GDP Q4 (13:30)


EURUSD

Thursday, preliminary figures showed that German consumer prices could increase by 1.9% annually in January, as a result of the rise in energy and commodity prices. This data echoed the recent change of tone among ECB members, which are carefully monitoring pressures on domestic and imported inflation. It also provided support for the euro above the $1.3700 level, while the dollar suffered from disappointing jobless claims and durable goods orders. Today, all eyes will be looking at the US fourth-quarter GDP, to see if strong numbers can invert the bearish trend of the greenback.

EURUSD Support / Resistance: 1.3680 / 1.3750

GBPUSD

The week was challenging for the pound. The British currency retreated from $1.6000 to $1.5800 in reaction to the GDP contraction in the fourth quarter. Afterwards, it climbed back to $1.5900, in the light of hawkish MPC minutes. Overall, it seems that market participants have limited visibility on the ongoing austerity process. In the short term, this could limit upside potential for the pound, unless the UK economy shows clear signs that it can avoid a double-dip recession.

GBPUSD Support / Resistance: 1.5880 / 1.5985

USDJPY

Yesterday morning, the long-term sovereign rating of Japan was lowered from AA to AA- by Standard & Poor’s. In reaction, the USDJPY pair spiked to ¥83.00, reverting its bearish trend line. Overnight, Japanese data showed that employment was improving and deflation was easing. This could help the pair consolidate toward its support zone, eying ¥82.40 and ¥82.10 as targets.

USDJPY Support / Resistance: 82.10 - 82.40 / 83.00

January 28, 2011 - Markets.com

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Gold Price | Technical Analysis | 27 January 2011

Gold Price | Technical Analysis | 27 January 2011

Gold is currently testing the upper limit of its medium-term bullish channel at 1348 and appears to initiate a return. However a break of these levels would allow it to begin a more violent uptrend.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold will have broken its resistance in 1348 with a 1st objective of 1362, then 1367. A break in 1346 would invalidate this scenario.


by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert - InstaForex © 2007-2011

more Gold Technical Analysis

EUR/USD | Technical Analysis | 27 January 2011

EUR/USD | Technical Analysis | 27 January 2011

This pair has risen to touch the underside of the old trend-line from the June lows. It has been unable to penetrate above however, and this morning a sharp sell-off brought prices down to 1.3637 breaking the trend-line of the move from Jan 10 lows in the process. A recovery rally has brought prices back into the range in the 1.3680s.

I think it is unlikely the move down is complete and a ‘C’ leg might unfold with a target of 1.3610 where the S2 daily pivot resides. Alternatively a continuation higher might reach the top of the range at 1.3725.

by Joaquin Monfort, Analytical expert , Forex4You © 2011

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Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Currency Roundup | FX Market | Fundamental Analysis | 26 January 2011

Currency Roundup | FX Market | Fundamental Analysis | 26 January 2011

USD : The dollar traded mixed, losing ground in the European session after inflationary data ignited ECB rate hike speculation; and then later after the published fall of -12.9% in MBA Mortgage Applications which compared with a 5.0% increase last month. There also seemed to be a sell-off effect ahead of today's FOMC meeting. However, the dollar rallied at the start of the US session after a surge in New Home Sales of 17.5% MoM in December improved the outlook for the flagging housing market. At midday GMT the dollar traded at 1.3693 against the euro and fell to 1.5959 to the pound.

EUR : The euro rallied higher and the gains were attributed to an above forecasted increase in the German Import Price Index of 2.3% in December compared to only 1.2% last month and 12.0% YoY - an increase of 2% on the previous month. This fuelled inflationary speculation and boosted expectations of an ECB rate hike. At midday GMT the euro traded at 1.3693 to the dollar and fell to 0.8633 against the pound.

GBP : The pound corrected higher, paring more of yesterday’s losses as the BOE minutes showed a shift in the voting. The voting at the January meeting shifted from 7-1-1 to 6 -2-1 with the majority still voting to keep interest rates and the asset purchase at the same levels and another board member, Martin Weale, joining Andrew Sentence in the 'rate-hike' camp and Posen still the lone advocate for further QE stimulus. The pound rallied on the news which showed an increased probability that the BOE will hike up rates . Taking the shine off the minutes rally however was the poorer performance of the Loans for House Purchases data which dropped below expectations in December, from 29,696 to 28,726. At midday GMT the pound rose to 1.5959 against the dollar and 130.34 against the yen.

JPY : The yen traded mixed as markets meandered in no clear direction. The BOJ published its monthly report which characterised the economy as still mildly recovering but not yet fully recovering. It also saw exports as being the main driver of the recovery and this implied the need to prevent the yen from substantially increasing in value. The possibility of more intervention implied by the report may have acted as a dampener on the yen as market participants anticipated a weaker yen going forward. Traders may also be awaiting the result of the FOMC which got underway today and will last till tomorrow. At midday GMT the yen traded at 82.19 to the dollar and 112.54 against the euro.

by Joaquin Monfort, Analytical expert , Forex4You © 2011

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