The USD has come a long way in just a week's time. This week has shown the USD in a tentative recovery.
Still, we should have some serious doubts that this is a true bullish reversal. We saw a similar reversal broken up a couple of weeks back when a sharp rally for the dollar and the anticipated increase from the S&P 500 were reversed after the weekend.
What led the US Dollar to gain this past week? Strong fundamentals could have lent some support to the gain, but we did not see that, it appears that a true and technical bullish phase was in effect. With that said, without a solid foundation, the US currency could be looking at another swift fall in the coming weeks ahead.
Let's look at some fundamentals. A view of the consumer and business health offered a direct look into whether the US was on a fast track to surpass its global counterparts for growth and returns. We saw personal spending, manufacturing activity and service sector activity all carving out gains. However, a vigilant fundamental trader would really hone in on the extremely disappointing employment breakdown and the PCE inflation figures.
The net payrolls were a huge disappointment for missing their mark. We saw a jobless rate only improving with a record number of frustrated Americans leaving the labor force and the participation rate tumbling to its lowest level in 26 years. This puts growth or a lack of growth back into perspective. Without employment and wages improving, the economy will not expand, especially at its current clip. As for the FED's favored inflation indicator, a record low sets a very poor precedence for interest rate speculation. Read more